If the stock should rise, he would raise the stop-loss price. If it should fall through the stop-loss price, he would be automatically sold out. Mr. Darvas called his method “Techno-fundamentalism,” but it is essentially a technical approach based on the idea that market is its own indicator. It is “fundamentalism” only in the sense that he used a daily market average of industrial stocks as a basic indicator of the stock market trend. Stock prices may indeed be determined by fundamental values in the long run, but he concerned himself only with what the market was doing at the moment.

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Investment income has been somewhat larger than for common stock funds because of the unusual relationship in recent years between the yields of blue chips and fixed-income securities; and changes in net asset value have been more moderate than in common stock funds. Insofar as the common stock portfolio is concerned, Wellington has concentrated less than some other funds. For example, at the end of 1961, the largest proportion of common stockholdings to the total investment was 12.2 per cent in electric, telephone, and natural gas utilities; the oil group was second with 7.0 per cent. In some earlier years, the degree of concentration was even lower.

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Time and again, however, I was confronted with the same problem. When things looked perfect on paper, when balance sheets seemed right, the prospects bright, the stock market never acted accordingly. For instance, when I carefully compared the financial position of some dozen textile companies and after much study decided that the balance sheets clearly indicated that American viscose and stevens were the best choices, it was very puzzling to me why another stock called textron advanced in price while my two selections did not. I found this pattern repeatedly in other industry groups. Baffled and a little disconcerted, I wondered whether it would not be wiser to adopt the judgment of a higher authority about the merits of a company. I asked my broker whether there was such an authority.

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As has been pointed out along the way, the hazard to the speculator is two-fold: his timing may be off, or, worse, his information may be wrong. In the former case, his situation may resolve itself, but only after such a lapse of time that the profit on an annual basis is, in fact, less profitable than normal dividends from a high-yield stock or normal appreciation of a good growth issue. In the latter case, the special situation may simply turn out to be a notable bust. The reorganization leaves nothing for the common shareholders, the merger doesn’t come off, the liquidation realizes less than the investment, the court rules against the company. This happens, too. In fact, it happens more often than not Which is what makes special situations so terribly special.

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