July 12, 2008
Commodity future day trading - Few industries are more basic than steel, yet it, too, is highly sensitive to fluctuations in consumer demand”including that of the auto industry, perhaps its largest single customer.
Despite the premier ratings given to some of its stock, steel has been traditionally regarded as a "prince or pauper" industry. Aircraft companies are so heavily dependent on Government defense contracts that they, too, cannot be relied upon for consistent prosperity. Stability, therefore, would seem to require a basic product, or service, manufactured or distributed by an established company in established markets. The ideal is an all-weather product, not subject to seasonal slumps, to changing fashions, or to family budget limitations when money is tight. It should not be past its prime, like coal, leather, or wool, but should not be in an experimental phase, like electronics, atomic energy, and rare earths and metals. It should not require such enormous investments for research and development that per-share earnings will not permit a steady, handsome dividend.
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